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I found out the end of one of the stories I'd heard after last year's fires. And the beginning and some more of the middle too. It was one of the terrible stories, and it ended on a cliff hanger - a father, in a coma in The Alfred, hovering between life and death, his entire family wiped out.

At the time I didn't know whether it would be better for him to emerge from the coma or not. How do people manage to carry on, surviving?

But he did emerge, and he has carried on. And of course it's not the final end of the story - when that comes I don't know. When he dies? When everyone who remembers it dies? When it's just another note on major catastrophes in a text book? Another curiosity of the graveyard?

I wonder where the Port Arthur massacre sits in terms of story endings. And yes, that's the example springing to mind mostly because of Walter Mikac, who also carries on. Surviving. Living.

one year on

Feb. 8th, 2010 02:57 pm
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I avoided the media yesterday. I remember what happened, I remember how I felt then and I didn't need to be reminded that yesterday was one year since it was stupidly hot (was it really 15oC hotter a year ago?), everywhere seemed to be in flames and the aftermath was terrible.

Even so I still managed to come across stuff during the week. FoxFM broadcast from Kinglake for their breakfast show on Friday morning - I knew they were going to do that (they'd been mentioning it all week) but come Friday morning I forgot and the radio was already tuned to them and so I caught five minutes (four were a song and ads) before having to switch over to another channel that was talking about normal things, like Brangelina. Thank God for Brangelina I say - fluff at least doesn't make you cry while you're trying to drive.

They didn't intend it that way but the show came across as voyeuristic. To me at least.

Christine Nixon asked people not to go up to Kinglake for the anniversary, to allow communities to grieve and remember in their own way. Most people appear to have done that - the memorials appear to have been attended by those who were most affected, rather than the community at large responding to shock and grief, as last year's were.

I wonder how D. coped though - whether she hid and watched DVDs, or went to the footy match, or left the state or what.

At least now it's the first of everything - first birthday (without), first Easter (without), first anniversary (without), first Christmas (without) - and hopefully there will be healing. Time moves on, like it or not. Scabs form. Trees regrow. Pain dulls.

And some time, in the future, it will happen again. Too much Battlestar: all this has happened before, all this will happen again.
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Last Sunday we headed up to Kinglake. It was quite busy, being a warm, hazy day, a public holiday and generally a nice day for a drive. Initially we'd intended to have lunch up there, but being in the between Christmas and New Year period most places were closed. Of the two that were open, the cafe had a sign up saying 'closed' at 1.30pm - we thought it might have been a mistake, given there were people eating inside at every table, so we went in. Nope, they were shutting. As we left more people came in with the same idea. What kind of cafe closes at 1.30pm?! Possibly one that has run out of food I guess...

The other shop open was the bakery, which had run out of pies, sausage rolls and pasties by the time we wandered up there and only had sweet things left. So we didn't end up eating up there.

The drive up was... impressive. There are literally entire hills of black trees marking exactly where the fire went through and how intense it was. Naturally the most panoramic vistas of dead trees occur on the parts of the road where it is most dangerous to stop. So we didn't.

Kinglake itself is in the process of being rebuilt - there were caravans and half-finished houses and the occasional shipping container. And some entirely new estates that definitely weren't there the last time I went up in about 2006ish. I think they surprised me more than anything. A lot of roads are still closed due to "unstable vegetation" - looking at the trees I can see why.

There was an enormous pile of logs on the approach to Kinglake that had obviously been milled from areas the fire went through.

Anyway, some photos. Read more )
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Strathewan not warned.

Like, at all. I already knew that, I heard it in real time on the ABC.

Mr Rush questioned why the Integrated Emergency Coordination Centre in Melbourne, given the pressure the Alexandra control centre was under, did not play a greater role in ensuring up to date warnings were being given to communities.

The hearing continues.


Same story, different newspaper.

CFA Chief Officer Russell Rees was recalled today and he could not explain why there was no mention of Kinglake on the CFA website on Black Saturday between 4.35pm and 5.55pm, when a warning was finally issued.

The commission heard yesterday that the firestorm that swept across Kinglake had been acurately mapped hours earlier in the IECC.

Mr Rush asked Mr Rees why Strathewen, where 27 people died, was never mentioned in any CFA warnings.

Mr Rees said Arthur's Creek, which was nearby, was mentioned.
Mr Rush suggested Strathewen was mentioned in other CFA communications.

"Why would Strathewen miss out (on warnings)?" Mr Rush asked.

"I don't know the answer to that," Mr Rees replied.


Chaotic I think is an understatement.

post-fire

May. 9th, 2009 11:45 am
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It's three months since the bushfires. It seems longer, probably because the seasons have changed and it's currently 32oC lower than it was on the day. It's also both greyer and greener - both of which relate to the recent rain. Not enough to bring the dams up, but enough to start the grass growing.
Read more )
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We went back up to have tea with Dean's parents again on Friday night in Whittlesea. On the way up I realised you can actually see where the fires went across the hills. I keep forgetting how much closer Whittlesea is to Mt Disappointment and Kinglake.

There was one really large, almost clear looking patch on the hills. Dean's best guess is that that's where Coombs Rd was, where Brian Naylor and his wife lived. It looked to be roughly right anyway.

The roadblocks have gone, and the roads to Kinglake and Marysville re-opened on the weekend. We didn't go up there, for obvious reasons. The refugee and emergency services camps in Whittlesea have pretty much gone, although there's still an Australia Post mailpoint caravan (quite a lot of people don't have mailboxes any more, funnily enough, but they still need a Post Office Box address.) The centre of action has now apparently moved back up to the communities, which is a good thing.

While we were waiting for Dean's parents I flicked through the most recent edition of Mountain Monthly. This edition is about survival - it's full of survival stories, photos, etc. The obituaries can wait for later editions, and, in some cases, for the dead to be identified.

Only 66 out of 210 so far. D., who works for Dean's parents, is waiting for her son and his family to be identified still. The four of them (her son, her daughter-in-law and two grandchildren) died together with 5 others and they're still identifying the bodies. D. and her family know that they're dead - there are phone calls, a neighbour who saw them, that kind of thing - but until the coroner releases all 9 of them there will be no funeral or memorial service.

(The neighbour offered them all a lift down to a cleared patch of ground he hoped would be safer. They hesitated, and decided to stay in the house. It could have been the other way around. A roll of the dice, the luck of the moment. The firestorm obliterated their entire street. No one who stayed survived. In this case the advice not to leave in the face of the fire was wrong. But it could have so easily been the other way around.)

Meanwhile there's a memorial service or funeral almost every second day. A lot of the time the memorial services are public, the funerals are immediate family only and little publicised.

After tea Dean's Mum asked if we'd mind giving her a lift up to the church so she could set up the coffee mugs for the following day's service. The op shop behind the church has signs asking people not to leave any more donations, they've no room. All the other op shops have similar signs up. There are three shipping containers sitting out the front of the church, and they're full too. The goods will get used of course, but first people have to clear, to sift and to decide whether to rebuild or not.

Whittlesea is nearly back to normal. It was pretty dead on Saturday night, with only the local restaurants, pubs and takeaways having signs of life. I think everyone's happier that way.
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Anyone from Melbourne who's interested in growing seedlings up for replanting burned out areas (and re-vegetating other areas, obviously) have a look at The Tree Project.

Could be fun, especially for kids.

more on SMS

Mar. 2nd, 2009 02:56 pm
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Vic Police just texted me to tell me there's high winds forecast today and tomorrow and an increased risk of fire danger.

Oh and I should listen to local ABC radio.

Might have to stream it from work then...
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Dear Country,

OK, we get it. You liked the bloody poem.

But seriously, do you have to take it quite so literally? I mean, in the course of the last month we've had floods, fire and it looks like we're gearing up for the famine part (OK, I'm over-dramatising a bit there. Maybe.)

Still, if you are going to take it quite that literally, could we have some of the rain down here please? Because we really would like to have the "filmy veil of greenness" thing happening, not least because it's more fire-resistant. And it'd help settle some of the ash.

Ta muchly.
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And in my second post in less than a minute, God some people are winners.
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And good luck with that one.

Police want to ban blogs on accused arsonists. OK, the guy's been named in the media since the suppression order was lifted yesterday. Since then apparently facebook et al have gone nuts with variations on the "Die you bastard" postings.

This surprises people because...?

Frankly I think they should have kept the suppression order - while people in Churchill may have widely known who he was, the rest of Victoria/Australia certainly didn't.

And that of course has made it heaps easier for people to find his address, his MySpace page, etc etc.

*sigh*

It might just be me, but I'm thinking the magistrate didn't fully understand that. Which they should have, given the prevalence of phone books over the last century and all.

Whether they were going to or not they'll have to now keep him in protective custody.
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Two perspectives from people who were burnt out in Cockatoo in 1983.

Past tragedy offers lessons for long road back.

Don't gape at us, your good little victims.

and one from a woman who lost her home in the Canberra 2003 fires.

A letter from a firestorm survivor.

Just because the house is gone doesn't mean the mortgage stops. *sigh*

At least some kids are back to school, and some semblance of normality.

Meanwhile of course some idiot's been lighting fires up near Belgrave, an alleged arsonist has been arrested in Churchill, firefighters have arrived from NZ and the US and there are only 6 going fires at present. Only 6!! Oh and apparently the army's idea of a firebreak is bulldozing the crap out of everything in sight. This made me laugh for no good reason.

Elvis

Feb. 15th, 2009 10:06 am
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I keep seeing Elvis.

I've no idea where it's based, but it must be somewhere in a direct line between here and the outer hills.

It's kind of trippy though, first I always think "oh a helicopter" which becomes "that's a pretty big helicopter.." and then I realise it's Elvis.

One of these days it'll be a Blackhawk instead and I'll be very surprised.

Of course all these helicopters are giving Dean the opportunity to mutter about "black helicopters/CIA"[1] every five minutes, so the sooner the finish up the better.

In other news, the Buln Buln cricket ground caught fire last Saturday. This should probably not be making me laugh, but it is. I'm not sure why - the ground where I go for group training is so dry it crunches when we run so there's no good reason why Buln Buln should be any different.

Even so though, I can't believe it caught fire. Especially from ember attack.

[1]King of the Hill quote. In Dale's accent.
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Driving up to Dean's parent's place last night via our usual kind of back roads route we came across a police roadblock. Which wasn't a booze bus, just a roadblock. It took a minute before I realised that if we'd been turning right we'd be on the road to Arthur's Creek. The roads are still mostly shut. We turned left and kept going.

There is a refugee camp in Whittlesea. OK, technically it's actually an "Internally Displaced Persons Camp" - refugees cross borders, IDPs don't - but even so. It's in Whittlesea. Pretty much as a direct result of this, Whittlesea was the most crowded I've ever seen it. Not just for a Friday night, even for Christmas shopping days. Cars everywhere.

We went past 3 op shops which were all busy at 9pm on a Friday night. The Salvos, the Anglicans, the Red Cross. There are container loads of stuff sitting in spare areas. There are three alone filled with animal foods/bedding.

The Red Cross had two signs up:

"Thank you but sorry, we cannot accept more donations here."

and

"Please keep Vet car park clear for animal casualties."

We didn't actually go down to the two sites where people are housed/fed, we were going for tea with Dean's parents. It's been kind of a stressful week for them. Sitting in the Italian restaurant the conversation kept veering from the fires, away to something else, then back to the fires. This person's lost their house. This person's son's in the army, has just been sent down here. This person didn't make it. This person who used to live here 15 years ago drove down from Brisbane with a horse trailer full of donated goods, arrived this morning.

"Tell me a joke" Dean's father asked at one point. "I need something to make me laugh".

I told him about the possum at work. He laughed.

I told him the only jokes I'd heard about the fires (of course there are jokes - black humour is everywhere) were musings along the lines of whether the smoke around Flowerdale had had an hallucinogenic effect on the firefighters. Flowerdale is known around the area as being the place where large amounts of marijuana is grown up in the hills. Dean's father giggled. "I'll have to pass that one on, that's funny."

A table in the corner was celebrating a child's birthday. One of the women had her arm in a sling. God knows. There were quite a few people with bandages, slings and on crutches around.

Leaving the restaurant we ran into a bloke Dean's family knew who was wearing what looked like a hospital ID tag (it was for the IDP camp) and chatted to him for a while. He was picking up a pizza for his family, his kids were tearing in and out of the restaurant while they waited for the order to be ready. His house was saved, but they couldn't go back up yet. They were lucky - the front was coming straight at them when the wind changed. All the houses the next road up the ridge were gone. He talked about one man who'd gone down a dead-end bush road with a 1000 litre water tank on the front of his tractor and gone around and around his house spraying with water to save it. "That family - they're all mad buggers."

He looked around to make sure the kids weren't in earshot, dropped his voice a bit and talked about neighbours who didn't make it. No one could understand how this bloke had died - he should have had time to get out. These guys left it too late, were caught in their car. This man had a cellar, no one knew whether he didn't make it there in time, or whether the house collapsed on it. Some were saying that it was possibly water from Elvis that collapsed the house. No one knew. It was all very matter of fact.

The pizza was ready, so we said goodbye and headed off. There were kids heading in groups up the main street, and it occurred to me that for some of them Whittlesea was the big smoke and this was probably the most excitement they'd seen on a Friday night outside of the show.

On the way home there were a steady stream of cars heading back up to the town.
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There's been a bit of a media teacup storm the last few days over the SMS warning system that was only signed off on three days before the bushfires.

I have to say I don't think having the system in place would have made a blind bit of difference actually.

The main reason for this was the speed of information relative to the speed of the fire. 774 were reading bulletins the minute they got them. They were a good 20 minutes behind the Kinglake fires. The CFA website, ditto. DSE you could barely get on to (I didn't because the radio was asking people not in immediate danger to stay off it so it didn't melt down entirely). The Bushfire Emergency Hotline was overloaded and had waiting times on it. I don't see that an SMS system wouldn't be susceptible to the same problems - more so perhaps, given that I was still getting texts from New Years Eve three days after it happened.

I was listening to an interview with Michael Leunig, who lives in a bushfire prone area. He was talking about how he was listening to CFA radio traffic on a scanner during the crisis, and "with all due respect to the ABC you were light years behind what was happening on the ground."

Well yes. Information has to get from the ground to the control centre and then be disseminated out again. The Kinglake fires travelled approximately 35km in about 16 minutes. By the time the warnings got out the fires had already swept over Humevale and Kinglake West and were bearing down on Kinglake itself. The warnings for Wandong even were barely ahead of the fire, and that was when the fire was still travelling in the same direction it had been for about 30 minutes.

A secondary problem with the whole SMS warning system is that there are an awful lot of black spots for mobiles in those hills. If you've ever driven the Whittlesea-Kinglake road and been watching the bars on your mobile you'd notice that they vanish with alarming regularity. It's fine to say "oh we'll send warnings via fixed line as well" - not that useful if the lines have come down.

A third problem is that people are going to rely on this as a system and it won't necessarily work. A woman who works for Dean's parents lost family members in Kinglake. She was on the phone to them as the fire hit their house. Close to their last words were "no, we're not in danger - the website says it's heading your way, not here." Dean's father wondered why they hadn't at least gone outside and had a look around, which might have given them enough time to flee. The short answer is because we've changed the way we look for information, and websites give instantaneous news. Except of course their updates are dependent on what's being put in, and if what's being put in is behind what's happening on the ground then they're useless.

I was surprised by the number of people who didn't have 774 on during Saturday, especially those in higher risk areas. I live in the suburbs, the likelihood of my house being at risk was minimal (although my suburb turned up in an update last night.) I was listening because I had family who were possibly in the path of danger. But again, we've changed how we access information - radio used to be the medium we'd turn to first for immediate information, now it's TV or the web.

Speaking of TV I was utterly shocked at how little information there was on there (I was hoping for a map graphic, given that I was having trouble working out where all the fires were). There was nothing. Not even a ticker tape banner across the screen indicating something, anything might be going on. ABC and channel 7 had movies showing. SBS had weather when I checked but nothing else. Channel 9 had either a movie or cricket. Channel 10 had golf - and then went straight to The Simpsons. As far as I could tell they didn't even have news on that day. If ABC radio were light years behind what was happening on the ground, the television networks were light millenia behind. The following day, when they'd all had time to react, we got news (and pathos and at least one piece of extraordinarily bad interviewing.) But not at the time it might actually have helped. Even a scrolling banner across the screen saying "Victorian Bushfire Emergency: tune to ABC radio for updates" with frequencies would have helped. I guess the only time they run 24/7 news items is when it happens overseas and someone else is broadcasting it for them.

Getting back to the SMS system. It's not that I necessarily think it's a bad idea to have set up. I just don't think it's the cure-all panacea some sections of the media appear to be presenting it as. Some people might - and I really do mean might - have gotten the SMS in time, been able to evacuate and been saved. But given the extreme nature of the conditions and the speed at which the fire moved I'm not sure it would have changed anything much. I think emphasising where information is available quickly, constructing bushfire shelters and possibly working on "evacuation recommended" warnings for certain days is likely to change things much more. At the very least, reminding people not to rely only on the SMS system needs to be emphasized.

Really

Feb. 12th, 2009 09:16 pm
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Given the events of the past couple of days I could seriously live without grass fires starting within a couple of km of my house.

No, seriously, I could. The whole suburb reeks of smoke - thank God I had no washing out. The smoke is also thick enough to see.

The fire was burning where I went bike riding a couple of weeks ago. This is another reason why I would prefer people not to refer to arson as terrorism - I really do not want any wannabe-jihadis with a death wish running around the suburbs lighting fires all of a sudden. I'd also prefer no wannabe-arsonists doing it without a death wish either, thanks. Or anyone, actually.

Sheesh. Elvis lives in Ivanhoe - of all the suburbs I wouldn't expect him to turn up in! A bit too snobby for his tastes I think. (Oh and I like how the outer edges of zone one have suddenly become "inner city". At this rate I'll be living in the CBD in no time!)

Incidentally the CFA's Melways reference is miles off (as in, wrong page) from what I can see. I think they might want the following page.
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I had an e-mail from my cousin telling me that my uncle had spent most of Sunday and Monday at another relative's farm at Chum Creek fighting the fires. This was after spending Saturday at his farmlet (it's not big enough to be a farm!) keeping watch and helping put out a fire at the end of the road. The good news is that the relative's house is safe, and they don't think they're in any danger of being burnt out now - there's basically nothing flammable left anywhere near them. They were heading off to replace parts of the water system that burned - though apparently the pump is fine, just the plastic on the buttons melted a bit.

I rang my Dad last night - he had to scramble up ladders on Sunday morning when a thunderstorm hit and unblock the gutters because they actually got rain. Seriously, I think they may have been the only place in Victoria that got enough to warrant unblocking the gutters! It's being reported locally that live embers fell very close to the centre of Warragul, which amazes me. God knows how true that is - there were only dead ones falling on my parents house. The Robin Hood motel burned to the ground. There's a map of the current extent of the Bunyip fires here.

E-mails from three friends confirming that their families are safe and that the fires missed them. One I was very concerned about, considering where her family live.

News from another whose family is still in a town under threat, although they are currently safe.

Still waiting on news of another couple of people.

The hospital has been very quiet the last few days. At first I thought it was just my mood projecting, but no, we're on emergency bypass and quite a bit of elective surgery's been cancelled apparently. We currently have 16 burns victims, 9 in ICU, 6 in the burns unit. Oh and the morgue's full.

The death toll keeps rising (currently 181), and is now projected to reach as high as 300.
They're estimating 1 in 5 Marysville residents died.

The Narre Warren fires were apparently caused by someone using an angle grinder on the Saturday. I had no idea until I listened to the radio on Saturday morning that that's banned on total fire ban days. Obviously the person using it didn't know either. So is using a chainsaw (except in emergencies) or anything else that could create sparks.

The Bendigo fires may have been started by a lit cigarette butt being chucked out a car window. On a 47oC day with high winds. You can legislate but you'll still have stupidity.

The Churchill fires are almost definitely the products of arson.

Haven't heard about the Kilmore or Bunyip fires.

Oh and looting's started. At least the story out of Wandong reported on Nova yesterday made me laugh. Apparently some looters rocked up in a van to a house that was still standing, kicked the door open and started taking stuff out. Unfortunately for them they'd been noticed by a nearby group of locals, who then proceeded to beat the shit out of them. It wasn't put in quite those words on air of course.
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So the fires aren't even out yet and the blame game's already begun.

First cab off the rank is Danny Nalliah, from "Catch the Fire Ministries" - unfortunate name, all things considered - who is blaming the bushfires on Victoria recently decriminalising abortion laws.

But of course. Naturally we've seen God rain down fire in other places where the abortion laws have been decriminalised. Like, you know, London. Brussels. Amsterdam. Just off the top of my head here. Is it too much to ask for an arsonist to torch his house? Just so we can suggest that God is directly punishing him for his sins? And surely "Catch the Fire" is just asking for it really.

Then you apparently have comments made on various news sites along the lines of "the fires wouldn't have happened if people had guns!" I haven't seen these (otherwise I'd link) and Dean thinks they're probably a troll. I tend to agree, but I will give them credit for making me laugh out loud on a day when absolutely nothing else was. Because, you know, bushfires go away if you shoot at them. Damn gun control laws!

Then you have the predicted blames. The CFA. The state government. The council.

This level of blame is only going to increase in the coming weeks as people pass through shock and grief and get angry.

I don't know. I think the "stay or defend" CFA policy will be OK 99% of the time. Saturday was really that 1% where it didn't matter what you did the fires were too big, there were too many of them, they moved too fast and the wind changed unexpectedly and people died because of it. Should we bring in an evacuation policy for vulnerable towns on predicted days like those? Again, I don't know.

There have been a few days which have been predicted to be as bad as Ash Wednesday was over the last few years. Most of them have either failed to get to the predicted temperature, or the winds have changed and pushed the fires back in on themselves/brought rain, or we've gotten very, very lucky and the fires have burned out mostly uninhabited regions. The fires in 2006 burned out a huge area, but it was pretty much all uninhabited, and the small number of farms up there were able to be evacuated or backburned in time and were saved.

And then you have the question of where would you evacuate somewhere like Marysville to? Where's safe?

Dean and I talked about this on the Monday. I tend to think that if we'd been living in Kinglake we'd probably have left and spent the day in Melbourne. Dean thinks this is probably 20:20 hindsight talking, and maybe it is. But Dean knows the Kinglake area very well (he was talking about there only being two roads out and which back roads would be likely to be safest if the main roads were blocked), and to be honest I think that given we had an appointment in Melbourne in the morning we'd quite likely have just packed the boot with some clothes and documents, left the gutters full and hoped for the best. Marysville though... without an appointment somewhere else we'd probably have stayed put in the air-conditioned house. It's further away, there's nowhere really obvious to go to nearby. Healesville would seem to be the semi-obvious choice - but Healesville's currently under threat as well. The problem is Marysville's surrounded by bush in all directions. And psychologically speaking it's a town, and towns don't burn to the ground.

I think though that the policy will likely change to advise very early evacuation of certain vulnerable[1] places on days of predicted extreme conditions. Very early being pretty much "the day before, if possible." It still leaves the question of where the hell you go if you're from some of these towns open though. And it's unlikely to be a mandatory evacuation - as the CFA guy pointed out, you can order people, but you can't make them and they'll just ignore you if they're determined to defend their properties. What it probably will do though is mean that people who were planning on leaving early will now leave earlier. More property will probably be lost through ember attack, but with any luck fewer lives will. That's my guess anyway.

[1] basically places which are difficult to fight fires under extreme conditions in. I could see Noojee being evacuated, or Alexandra - both of which are hilly and surrounded by bush - but it's unlikely that, say, Narre Warren or Bendigo would be. Jury's out on Healesville.
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One of my friends, [livejournal.com profile] 17catherines, has come up with a fundraising skills auction to benefit the Bushfire fund. More information here.

Short version from there:

The basic idea is that a lot of people are not in a position to donate much in the way of money, but still want to do something to help fundraise. This is a place where you can put your skills or talents up for auction - offer to knit a scarf, write a story, give a language class, bake a cake, help someone with their garden or their tax - and the lucky winner of your skills will donate the amount they have offered to the Red Cross Appeal.

Please feel free to spread the idea widely. Or wildly, as I accidentally typed. Either's good.

173

Feb. 10th, 2009 09:27 am
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173 confirmed dead.

I can't even think any more.

Nearly all from around Kinglake.

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