(no subject)

[hnpcc]

Rang Mum, they're fine. Wind shifted to the north, which meant that the fire that was coming right at them (well, with Drouin still in the way) headed off to the north instead. According to Mum the sky suddenly lightened and everything cleared. This was after they'd filled the gutters with water, and Dad had also filled three neighbour's gutters as well. Seriously I sometimes wonder if the greatest danger is people falling off ladders while filling gutters at times.

Anyway.

Drouin West has been hit as well, some reports say houses lost and the school/hall, others not sure if they've lost the last two.

The relay transmitter near Morwell was burnt out, my parents now have no TV coverage (no great loss) but still have ABC regional radio which is a godsend.

Fires continue around the state, but the winds have dropped along with the temperatures. There's some concern over lightning strikes, which may start new fires (you know, just to help things along).

Narre Warren's still got warnings up as does the Kilmore fire which is now threatening communities from Flowerdale to Kinglake. Well, probably not Kinglake so much at the moment, I think it's been through there already.

Guess if the wind picks up and changes again they'll be banging on doors.

The consensus between Mum and myself was that while it was a Bloody Awful Day it was still not The Worst Day in History. As far as fires go that'd be either Black Friday (1939) or Ash Wednesday (1983) - both of which had significant loss of life. We've got fires all over the state, we've lost houses, sheds, stock and wildlife, but no one's been killed as yet. Touch wood.

Comments

[ang-grrr.livejournal.com]

Blummin' parents.

Glad they are well. :)

[essjayeff.livejournal.com]

I was just going to call you! Pleased to hear all is well.

We've been very lucky about loss of life. I do think it's mainly because we have been prepared, and the ABC blanket coverage informing people who may not have realised they were in the line of fire. It seems to have moved very quickly, and still caught some people out, stranding them on their roofs.

But I think we will find that we have lost a few when things settle down a bit. I hope not. I really hope not.

[undergroundsea.livejournal.com]

Thinking of you and hoping you will be able to have somewhat of a restful evening. I have been reading through your posts, and it sure brings back some feelings about how we felt when everything seemed to be coming at us from all directions and there was no way but nature alone that could stop it from coming.

The ABC radio is a godsend and so much better than any TV station. People died and lost their homes here because of the sleepy coverage of the TV stations.

Saw some people on the news tonight trying to save their houses in Kilmore. Some old dude was up on his roof and in the winds he looked as if he was about to tumble off it!

[jamaisneutral.livejournal.com]

How does filling the gutters with water help? I mean... it's not gonna stop your house from burning... Or is it?

[essjayeff.livejournal.com]

It won't stop it burning down if a full fire front hits - but if embers are being blown by winds, they can catch in gutters and set the house on fire and you won't be able to see them until it's too late. So you out tennis balls at the top of your downpipes, to block them temporarily, and fill the gutters to stop embers from catching in your roof.

A "fireplan" generally involves either fleeing early, or staying and fighting. Hopefully not waiting until the last minute and then driving into a fire front.

So if you stay, you clear your gutters and around your house, fill the gutters, fill buckets and patrol your home stamping or swatting out spot fires and embers with wet mops and burlap sacks.

I'm not sure I would have the guts to stay, but many people save their houses this way from ember attack.

[jamaisneutral.livejournal.com]

Oh. Thank you!

[hnpcc]

A lot of houses burn after the main fire front has missed them because of ember attack. Whether you stay or go really does depend on how big the fire is, how likely it is to hit your house (your survival rate is likely to be much lower if it does) and how prepared you are/aren't for the fire.

Leaving at the last minute unfortunately is likely to get you killed.

[17catherines.livejournal.com]

I'm so glad your family is OK.

[epideme.livejournal.com]

both of which had significant loss of life

and that makes it different from today how? Death toll may reach more than 40: police (http://www.theage.com.au/national/death-toll-may-reach-more-than-40-police-20090207-80ao.html?page=-1)

[essjayeff.livejournal.com]

They have only just reported that figure. When Alsion wrote there were no confirmed deaths, but then, it was very difficult to get into these areas. They have confirmed 14, but a figure closer to 40 is more realistic. But not confirmed as yet.

75 lives were lost in Ash Wednesday, 47 in Victoria (1983). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_fires
I haven't heard anything about SA casualties.
71 lives were lost in Black Friday fires (1939) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1939)

It really could have been very much worse than this - I've been watching them prepare all week for today.

I can't say enough - how well prepared all the Emergency Services and support were for today. It really could have been very much worse. I'm glad I wasn't on call.

[epideme.livejournal.com]

OK, that explains it. I read through all the posts in LJ and then went to the Australian news pages and couldn't explain the disparity.

[essjayeff.livejournal.com]

Yeh they are pretty careful about not reporting fatalities until they are confirmed.

ABC is streaming now - it says it's the Coodabeen Champions -but it's not. It's bushfire coverage.

http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/radio/

[hnpcc]

The other reason I would say it was worse in 1939 was the total lack of information available. People would have had ash and smoke, but no ability to tell if the fire was coming towards them, how far off it was, etc. As I said, ABC radio is a godsend - it was basically just update after update - urgent threat alerts, road closures, ember attack alerts, etc etc.

If a similar lack of information was available today we'd be looking at deaths in the 200+ range, given the larger populations.

Also, people are better prepared (mostly) today than they were even in 1983. The majority of people living in risk areas have a fire plan, have CFA/MFB information, have some idea what they should/shouldn't be doing. This hasn't stopped people fighting fires in shorts and thongs (ffs), nor has it stopped people panicking. But it's still better than having people boil to death in water tanks trying to escape the fire front.

[essjayeff.livejournal.com]

...and of course - more efficient transport to leave areas that are in the way. Bullock Drays were kinda slow compared with a 4-wheel drive super ute!

[hnpcc]

No deaths had been reported when I wrote that. I was hoping, somewhat against common sense granted, but hoping.

25 confirmed dead at this stage. 6 in one car at Kinglake. Fuck.

[dalmeny]

Glad your parents are OK. I guess we'll wait to hear about the rest.

The cool change has definitely passed through here - it was 42 C this mornin, 35 C this afternoon and right now it's 22 C. That should help as it keeps passing eastwards.