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[personal profile] hnpcc
A quick moment of procrastination.

After last night's episode the relative leg standings are:

Surfers - 6,1,3,2,1; average 2.6
Farmers - 5,2,5,1,2; average 3.0
Father/Son - 4,4,6,4,3; average 4.2
Bikers - 2,6,4,6,4; average 4.4
Sisters - 9,10,2,7,5; average 6.6
Fighting Daters - 7,3,7,3,7; average 5.4
Models - 1,5,8,5,6; average 5.0
Mo*s - 11, 7,9,8,8; average 8.6.

Hm. At this point I'd predict that barring unfortunate errors it will be a male:male team who wins, most likely the Surfers (boring), the Farmers (slightly less boring) or the father/son team (very boring, but at least age is a factor.) I dunno, last night's tasks seemed to be geared towards the Farmers a lot, and having three of the four male:male teams finish 1,2,3 is making it kind of boring. The Bikers and Muscles and Bambi have a fighting chance of staying - and fighting seems to be the operative word, which could also be their undoing. The Models... seem to be going backwards, and the Sisters may be going forwards but I can't see them staying in much longer either if they don't pick up soon.

Interestingly the average standings from leg 4 would have been:

Surfers - 3.0
Farmers - 3.25
Father/Son - 4.25
Bikers - 4.5
Models - 4.75
Fighting Daters - 5.0
Sisters - 7.0
Entrepeneurs - 7.25
Mo*s - 8.75

So yeah, the Mo*s were basically not really ever likely to win this. Neither were the Entrepeneurs, which only really bolsters my theory that the Surfers wasted their Yield on them - why pick someone who's not a threat? I think they would have been better off either waiting and letting someone else (the Bikers) do it, or targeting the Father/Son team. The next Yield is almost certain to be the Farmers targeting the Surfers, assuming they're ahead at that point. If not, the rest of the remaining teams would be stupid not to target one of those two teams, again providing they're ahead. (If the Bikers go for it they'll target Muscles and Bambi for sure, which would be stupid and petty... but also kind of understandable.)

Anyway. I should stop procrastinating now.

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